The Bank of England’s monetary policy decision is now shrouded in uncertainty after a significant downside surprise in the August inflation figures. The market had previously priced in an 80% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate hike to 5.5%, but expectations shifted dramatically following the release of the consumer price index (CPI) reading. This article will explore the implications of the lower than expected inflation figures and its potential impact on the Bank’s upcoming policy decision.
The August CPI print fell to 6.7%, defying consensus expectations of a rise to 7%. This unexpected decrease in headline inflation has made it difficult to predict the Bank of England’s next move. The probability of the Bank holding rates steady at 5.25% rose from 20% to over 57% following the release of the data. Additionally, core CPI, which excludes volatile factors, showed a decline to 6.2%, down from 6.9% in July.
Goldman Sachs revised its projection for the Bank of England’s rate decision, now expecting the main bank rate to remain unchanged. The August inflation data shows more progress in inflation persistence than anticipated since the previous meeting. Combined with the Bank’s recent dovish commentary, Goldman Sachs predicts that the Bank will not raise rates and lowers their forecast for the terminal policy rate to 5.25%.
Barclays’ Analysis of the Downside Surprise
Barclays analysts highlighted the broad-based downside surprise in the inflation figures, which deviated significantly from the Bank’s own projections. This has resulted in a more finely balanced decision for the Bank of England on Thursday. While still favoring a 25 basis point increase, Barclays acknowledges a more dovish vote split within the Monetary Policy Committee. The unexpected inflation figures have introduced uncertainty into the expected course of action.
Despite the downside surprise in August inflation, many analysts believe the MPC is leaning towards another rate increase. Berenberg Senior Economist Kallum Pickering argues that while the surprise strengthens the case for a pause, the Bank will likely signal that further hikes are unlikely as long as inflation continues to trend lower. Monthly data can be volatile, and price pressures remain above the Bank’s 2% target. Pickering also highlights underlying demand and elevated wage pressures as contributing factors to services cost pressures.
The Balancing Act for the Bank of England
The Bank of England faces the delicate task of balancing inflation control with preventing a potential recession. The recent profit warnings from British companies and a 0.5% contraction in the economy in July have added pressure on the MPC to ease off on rate hikes. The unexpected inflation figures further complicate the decision-making process. Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at stockbroker AJ Bell, suggests that the downside inflation surprise may give the MPC leeway to adopt a wait-and-see strategy. The impact of previous rate hikes is still being felt by businesses and homeowners, with the anticipation of increased mortgage payments during the expensive Christmas season.
The Bank of England’s upcoming rate decision has become far more uncertain due to the downside surprise in August inflation. The unexpected decrease in headline CPI and core CPI figures has altered market expectations and introduced ambiguity into the Bank’s next monetary policy move. While some analysts predict a pause or even a rate cut, others argue for one more rate increase. The Bank faces the challenge of balancing inflation control with supporting the economy amid profit warnings and a contracting GDP. The rate decision on Thursday will be closely watched as it provides insights into the Bank’s stance on future rate hikes and its assessment of the overall economic conditions.