As investors bask in the success of a strong first quarter, it may be time to prepare for a bumpy ride ahead. CFRA’s Sam Stovall warns that the impressive start to the year for stocks, particularly the S & P 500, could be a prelude to a challenging year. While the first quarter saw significant gains, the second quarter kicked off on a sour note with a more than 1% dip as the 10-year Treasury note yield rose to its highest level since November. This shift sparked concerns that Federal Reserve rate cuts may not happen as quickly as expected, setting the stage for increased market volatility.
Drawing from historical trends, Stovall emphasizes that a strong first quarter often sets the stage for a positive second quarter. However, this could also mean that equities are more susceptible to significant downturns. Looking back at the 15 strongest first-quarter returns since World War II, Stovall notes that they were typically followed by second quarters with solid gains. Despite this, the data also reveals that after 13 of these strong first quarters, the S & P 500 experienced “intrayear” declines of 5% or more. The average loss during these periods exceeded 11%, highlighting the potential for a turbulent year ahead.
As investors navigate the uncertain market conditions, Stovall advises sticking with winning positions. Despite recent profit-taking driven by speculation around Federal Reserve actions, history suggests that stocks have the potential to rebound and deliver favorable returns. Stovall specifically points to tech stocks, which have faced challenges at the start of the second quarter but could emerge as top performers by the year’s end. While the increased likelihood of market dips and higher volatility may cause concern, historical data indicates that most years following a strong start end with double-digit full-year price increases, with an average close to 23%.
While the market may face ups and downs in the coming months, investors can find reassurance in the historical patterns that point to potential long-term gains. Navigating volatility requires a strategic approach, and staying focused on solid investment choices may prove beneficial in the face of market uncertainty. As the year progresses, keeping a watchful eye on key indicators and maintaining a diversified portfolio can help investors weather the storm and potentially emerge with fulfilling returns.