In a year marked by high interest rates and persistent inflation, many investors have sought refuge in fixed income products. However, experts are now suggesting that it may be time to reconsider these popular allocation strategies. A recent cooler-than-expected CPI print in October has given hope that the Federal Reserve might be nearing the end of its interest rate hiking campaign. With this in mind, Dan Egan, Vice President of Behavioral Finance and Investing at Betterment, recommends that investors start preparing for a lower-rate environment and carefully consider their next moves.
Money market funds have proved to be an appealing option for investors this year, offering yields that are competitive with the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. In October, the note reached a key milestone of 5%, but has since fallen to 4.408% as of the latest market close. On the other hand, the 100 largest taxable money market funds, as tracked by Crane Data, have an average yield of 5.20%. The appeal of money market funds is evident in the significant inflow of approximately $1.2 trillion into these funds, compared to $264 billion into bond funds and $43 billion into U.S. equity funds this year, according to Goldman Sachs.
Matt Bartolini, Head of SPDR Americas Research at State Street Global Advisors, highlights the potential challenges fixed income products, including money markets, might face as the Federal Reserve progresses towards lower interest rates. Bartolini suggests that the popularity of fixed income products and the attractive yields they currently offer could falter as rates decrease. He predicts that as rates fall, investors may seek higher returns by reallocating their investments into equities or by remaining within the fixed income space but focusing on the 1- to 10-year duration.
In the meantime, Bartolini advises clients willing to take on more risk to consider shorter-duration bond funds. By investing in actively managed strategies with a total return mindset, investors can mitigate the volatility caused by changing interest rates and potentially achieve higher yields. One option is the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY), which tracks shorter-duration notes and has gained 0.22% year-to-date, as of the latest market close. In contrast, the iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT), which has exposure to Treasurys ranging from 1 to 30 years in duration, has experienced a decline of 1.85% during the same period. Egan echoes Bartolini’s sentiment, emphasizing the importance of setting up mental accounts and goals to protect oneself from short-term risks. This approach allows investors to be more opportunistic with their higher-risk budget.
As the investment landscape evolves and interest rates potentially begin to decrease, it is crucial for investors to reevaluate their fixed income allocation strategies. While money market funds have provided competitive yields this year, the changing rate environment could impact their performance. By considering alternative options such as shorter-duration bond funds and actively managing strategies, investors can navigate through potential interest rate fluctuations and aim for higher returns. Planning ahead and setting specific goals will allow investors to position themselves well and take advantage of new opportunities that arise.