China’s industrial output and retail sales growth in November 2023 indicated a mixed recovery for the world’s second-largest economy. While industrial output expanded at the fastest pace since February 2022, retail sales growth fell short of expectations. This article critically analyzes the data, considering the low base effect and the challenges faced by the Chinese economy.
China’s industrial output grew by 6.6% in November compared to the previous year, surpassing expectations and following a 4.6% rise in October. This positive growth can be attributed to the easing of restrictions implemented during the stringent zero-Covid curbs in the last quarter of 2022. However, caution must be exercised while interpreting this data, as the low base effect might have influenced the growth rate.
Retail sales in China climbed by 10.1% in November compared to the previous year, marking the highest growth rate since May. However, this growth fell short of analysts’ expectations of a 12.5% spike. The low base effect from 2022 played a role in the underperformance. The increase in retail sales in October was 7.6%. The slower-than-anticipated growth in retail sales raises concerns about the strength of domestic demand and points to a need for further stabilization measures by the government.
The urban unemployment rate in China remained steady at 5% in November. While this can be seen as a positive factor, it also indicates that the labor market is not showing significant improvement. The stabilization of the unemployment rate suggests that job creation continues to lag behind, contributing to weak consumer sentiment and restrained growth in retail sales.
The release of the economic data had a positive impact on the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a surge of more than 3%. Despite this gain, the index remains down by over 14% in 2023 and is on track for a third consecutive year of losses. The CSI 300 benchmark, consisting of the largest blue-chip stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, saw more modest gains of 0.7%. This demonstrates that while the data points to some positive signs, investors are still cautious about the overall trajectory of the Chinese economy.
The post-Covid recovery of the Chinese economy has fallen short of expectations due to various challenges. These include a real estate crisis, debt risks, and chronic youth unemployment. Despite multiple policy support measures, economic sentiment has not improved significantly, leading to calls for increased government stimulus. The need to counter a potential deepening slowdown and address underlying structural issues remains a pressing concern.
While the recovery has been challenging, there are some green shoots in the data. Cumulative investments in infrastructure and manufacturing increased by 5.8% and 6.3%, respectively, in the first 11 months of the year. Retail sales also rose by 7.2% during the same period. However, the real estate sector continues to face significant challenges, with investment in real estate development dropping by 9.4%. The decline in new home prices for the fifth consecutive month reflects weak demand and investment confidence, further exacerbating the real estate sector’s debt problems.
China’s economic priorities for 2024, as indicated in a recent meeting of leaders, emphasize the importance of stimulating domestic demand. Softening domestic demand is a cause for concern, highlighted by falling consumer prices in November and prolonged producer price deflation. These data points underscore the need for targeted measures to revive consumer confidence and boost economic growth.
China’s industrial output and retail sales growth data for November 2023 signal a patchy recovery in the country’s economy. While industrial output performed well, retail sales growth fell short of expectations. The challenges of a real estate crisis, debt risks, and youth unemployment continue to hinder economic progress. Chinese authorities need to implement focused measures to stabilize the economy, stimulate domestic demand, and address the structural issues that are impeding long-term growth.