As September approaches, Apple investors are bracing themselves for a potentially turbulent month. Historically, September has not been kind to Apple stock, with average losses of 3.5% over the past 10 years. This is in stark contrast to the gains seen in July and August, where shares averaged 6.5% and 4.8% respectively. Despite a 3.1% gain in August and an overall increase of nearly 19% for the year, there is apprehension surrounding the upcoming product announcements on September 9.
Morgan Stanley analysts are cautiously optimistic about Apple’s stock performance following the launch event. While historically the market has reacted negatively to iPhone launches, there is a belief that this year could be different. The introduction of the iPhone 16, rumored to feature Apple Intelligence integration, could spark renewed interest in the company’s artificial intelligence advancements. Analyst Erik Woodring believes that Apple’s stock could outperform historical trends, especially if the launch event generates significant demand for the new products.
Woodring points out that Apple shares tend to outperform when the company’s product replacement cycles shorten. He forecasts a contraction in iPhone replacement cycles through fiscal 2026, signaling potential growth opportunities for the tech giant. This multiyear product cycle refresh could accelerate iPhone sales and drive stock performance in the coming months. Woodring maintains an overweight rating on Apple stock with a $273 price target, representing a 19.2% potential upside from the current market value.
On the other hand, UBS analyst David Vogt remains neutral on Apple shares, citing a $190 price target and a potential 17% decrease over the next year. Vogt expressed concerns about the low consumer purchases of iPhone models in August and the associated risks leading up to the September launch event. With iPhones contributing to 46% of Apple’s total sales in the fiscal third quarter, the success of the upcoming product announcements is crucial for the company’s financial performance.
As Apple prepares to unveil its latest iPhone and Apple Watch models, the market sentiment remains divided. While historical trends suggest a potential dip in stock performance following the September launch event, analysts are hopeful that this year could buck the trend. With advancements in artificial intelligence and potential product cycle refreshes on the horizon, Apple investors are keeping a close eye on how the market will react to the upcoming announcements.
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