Energy analysts predict that the recent surge in European natural gas prices will persist in the coming months. On Wednesday, futures for natural gas jumped nearly 40%, reaching the highest level since mid-June at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub, a prominent European benchmark for gas trading. However, prices dipped slightly on Thursday, settling at around 36.6 euros per megawatt hour. In contrast, gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by 6.6% on Wednesday, settling at $2.96, the highest closing price since early March and the best daily performance since mid-June. The significant increase in gas prices is primarily attributed to potential supply disruptions in Australia due to an impending strike at major liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in the country.
Concerns over a potential strike led by Australian workers at Chevron and Woodside Energy Group have raised alarm bells in the energy industry. The strike, if realized, could disrupt up to four LNG facilities and jeopardize approximately half of Australia’s LNG export capacity. This development has prompted many Asian buyers, such as China and Japan, who purchased 26 million metric tons of Australian LNG combined in the first half of the year, to explore alternative sources for their LNG cargoes outside Australia. These countries heavily rely on Australian LNG, which accounted for over 60% of their imports during that period. The strike-induced supply disruption, coupled with ongoing heatwaves, which significantly increase the demand for natural gas, suggests that the bullish outlook on gas prices is likely to continue.
Europe’s reliance on Russian fossil fuel exports has been declining steadily as the euro zone seeks to diversify its energy sources following the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Countries like Germany have secured significant gas deals with other nations. However, concerns remain about a potential shortfall and the need to purchase gas at spot prices, as witnessed in 2022. Although Australia has become the leading exporter of LNG, surpassing Qatar and the United States, issues related to production and compromised gas fields have raised apprehension among European buyers. In response, they have resorted to tank filling from the cash market as a precautionary measure before the onset of winter. Furthermore, the ongoing force majeure declared in Nigeria since October of the previous year and the struggle to restore production after severe flooding have contributed to the tightness in the LNG market.
Analyst John Evans from brokerage firm PVM believes that the current rally in gas prices is unlikely to be disrupted by any significant issues in the energy sector. However, energy consultancy Rystad Energy expects the bullish trend in gas prices to persist due to reduced LNG imports to Europe, scheduled maintenance for Norwegian pipelines, and ongoing heatwaves in various regions globally. These factors indicate a potential continuation of high gas prices in the near future.
European natural gas prices have experienced a sharp increase due to the possibility of a strike in Australian LNG facilities and concerns about supply disruptions. Asian buyers, heavily reliant on Australian LNG, are exploring alternative sources, which further contributes to the bullish outlook on gas prices. European countries, aiming to reduce their dependency on Russian fossil fuel exports, have turned to the cash market in anticipation of potential supply issues. With ongoing force majeure in Nigeria and challenges in restoring production, the LNG market remains tight. Energy analysts predict that gas prices will likely continue to rise, driven by reduced LNG imports, planned pipeline maintenance, and extreme weather conditions globally. Despite these factors, the stability of the energy sector remains intact, supporting the current rally in gas prices.