Investors seeking temporary refuge from the turmoil caused by a surge in longer-term yields have poured their money into short-term U.S. government bonds, particularly 52-week Treasury bills, according to Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing at Goldman Sachs asset and wealth management. The most recent auction of these bills saw a humongous demand, exceeding supply by 3.2 times, marking the highest demand of the year. Rosner explained that investors are enticed by the higher yields available in the short end of the yield curve, driving them to flock to government paper in the hopes of waiting out the market upheaval.
This trend of investors opting for short-term U.S. government bonds is a consequential strategy adopted by institutional investors and wealthy individuals in response to the increase in long-term interest rates, which has sparked volatility in the markets. The 10-year Treasury yield, in particular, has been on the rise for several weeks, reaching a 16-year high of 4.89% after a strong September jobs report. To mitigate the effects of higher interest rates, investors allocated more than $1 trillion into new Treasury bills in the last quarter alone. Lindsay Rosner believes that this strategy leverages the belief that interest rates will remain elevated for a longer period than initially anticipated. Consequently, longer-duration Treasuries, such as the 10-year, are expected to offer higher yields in the coming year as the yield curve steepens.
According to Rosner, investors can currently collect a 5% coupon on 10-year Treasury bills for the next year. However, after this period, the market may present opportunities for even higher yields in longer-duration Treasuries or properly priced corporate bonds. By temporarily investing in short-term government bonds, investors can secure a steady return while patiently waiting for these future potential opportunities.
While 10-year Treasuries have experienced a recent decline, other fixed income instruments, such as investment-grade and high-yield bonds, have not fully reflected the change in rate assumptions. This makes them unattractive investments at the moment. However, it also suggests that there could be opportunities for investors in the future as these instruments adjust to the shifting yield environment.
The recent surge in yields has prompted professional managers to reevaluate the average duration of their portfolios. Ben Emons, head of fixed income at NewEdge Wealth, explained that investors looking to manage duration in their portfolios have turned to Treasury bills. These short-term bonds provide a viable option for those seeking to mitigate the risks associated with longer-term bonds.
Amidst a backdrop of rising yields and market turmoil, investors have enthusiastically embraced short-term U.S. government bonds as a means of navigating the current environment. By capitalizing on the expectation of sustained higher interest rates, investors are increasingly flocking to 52-week Treasury bills. This strategy allows them to benefit from higher yields now, while positioning themselves for potential future opportunities in longer-duration Treasuries or properly priced corporate bonds. However, it is crucial to recognize that other fixed income instruments have not fully adjusted to the changing yield assumptions, making them unattractive investments for the time being. As professional managers adjust their portfolios, Treasury bills have emerged as an attractive option for effectively managing duration. Ultimately, investors are seeking refuge and yield in the temporary safety of short-term U.S. government bonds during this period of market volatility.