As Lithuania prepares for its upcoming presidential election, the incumbent Gitanas Nauseda is favored to secure a victory in a campaign that has been heavily influenced by security concerns in the post-Soviet state. The Baltic nation, with a population of 2.8 million, has been a strong supporter of Ukraine since the Russian invasion in 2022. Given the volatile situation in the region, both NATO and EU member Lithuania fears that it could be the next target of Moscow’s aggression.
Candidates and Their Positions
Nauseda, a 60-year-old former senior economist with SEB, managed to secure 44% of the votes in the first round of the election on May 12, falling short of the 50% needed for an outright victory. His main opponent is Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, a 49-year-old candidate from the ruling Homeland Union party. Simonyte, who garnered 20% of the votes in the first round, has been behind in the opinion polls leading up to the final round of the election.
A poll conducted between February and March revealed that over half of Lithuanians believe that a Russian attack is possible, if not very likely. Nauseda, during a debate, made it clear that he views Russia as an enemy that poses a threat not just to Lithuania but to the entire democratic world. Both Nauseda and Simonyte advocate for increasing defense spending to at least 3% of Lithuania’s GDP, with Nauseda emphasizing the need to resist destabilization efforts.
While Nauseda and Simonyte both support the increase in defense spending, they have clashed on other policy issues. Nauseda, a social conservative, opposes giving legal recognition to same-sex civil partnerships, arguing that it would blur the lines with traditional marriage, which is the only form of union recognized by Lithuania’s constitution. On the other hand, Simonyte, a fiscal hawk and former finance minister, advocates for a more open and inclusive society that embraces diversity.
The president of Lithuania holds a semi-executive position, with responsibilities that include leading the armed forces, chairing key defense and security policy bodies, and representing the country at EU and NATO summits. The president also plays a role in setting foreign and security policy, has the power to veto laws, and is involved in the appointment of important officials such as judges and heads of state institutions.
Historical Context and Previous Election
This presidential election marks the second time that Nauseda and Simonyte have competed against each other in a run-off. In 2019, Nauseda emerged victorious with 66% of the vote, defeating Simonyte. As they face each other once again, the outcome of this election will not only determine the future leadership of Lithuania but also shape the country’s stance on crucial security and social issues.
Overall, the upcoming presidential election in Lithuania represents a critical moment in the country’s history, with the outcome likely to impact its relationship with neighboring Russia and its standing within the EU and NATO. The candidates’ differing positions on defense, social issues, and foreign policy underscore the importance of this election for the future direction of Lithuania.
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