The movie industry has taken a significant hit in recent years due to overlapping strikes and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is projected that the domestic movie box office will be reduced by approximately one billion dollars in 2024. However, it begs the question: would the film industry be better off if this pruning occurred primarily at the top? There is a compelling case to be made for it.
One of the most noticeable distortions observed alongside the COVID-19 lockdowns and the streaming revolution is the acceleration of a trend towards extreme top-loading at the box office. In 2023, the three highest-grossing films were Barbie, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. These three films amassed a total of approximately 1.6 billion dollars in ticket sales, accounting for 17.8 percent of the domestic theatrical total. Comparing this to previous years, where the top three films accounted for an average share of 22.5 percent, it becomes evident that the trend of top-loading has intensified.
During the five “normal” years between 2015 and 2019, which included blockbuster hits like Black Panther and Jurassic World, the top three films averaged only about 14.5 percent of the box office. Even in the years when Avatar and The Avengers boosted ticket sales, the top three films from 2010 to 2014 averaged just 10.9 percent of the total box office. In contrast, the combined share of last year’s top three films was 63 percent higher than the top three films a decade ago.
It is unclear what exactly has led to this shift in audience behavior. Factors such as the disappearance of lower- and middle-range films, the dwindling number of older viewers, and the extreme concentration of interest through social media may all contribute to this phenomenon. Nevertheless, it is apparent that the audience has gravitated towards a limited number of films at the top, resulting in the neglect of films in the lower ranks.
Looking at the figures more closely, after subtracting the earnings of the top three films, roughly 580 films in 2023 shared the remaining 7.4 billion dollars, averaging around 12.7 million dollars each. Comparing this to 2010, when a larger group of 650 films had an average take of about 14.5 million dollars, we can see a decline of approximately 14 percent. This disparity in earnings becomes even more pronounced when considering inflation.
The consequence of this top-heavy box office is a deformation in the industry. With an overwhelming focus on a small number of films at the very top, it becomes increasingly challenging for other movies to thrive. Streaming revenue, although significant, does not compensate for the imbalance. This necessitates a reevaluation of the system, with a potential need for trimming the overgrown parts of the industry.
If the film industry aims for a healthier state, it must address the issue of extreme top-loading. While it is natural for popular films to generate substantial revenue, it becomes problematic when the concentration of earnings becomes disproportionate. Distributing moviegoers’ attention more evenly across a wider range of films would benefit both the industry and the audience.
Moreover, achieving a balanced box office requires nurturing the growth of films in the middle and lower ranks. Encouraging diversity in storytelling and providing opportunities for independent filmmakers to thrive is crucial. By fostering a diverse range of films that cater to different audiences, the overall appeal and longevity of the movie industry can be enhanced.
The movie box office has experienced a distortion towards extreme top-loading in recent years. The dominance of a small number of films at the top has resulted in an imbalanced distribution of earnings, making it tougher for other movies to succeed. A more equitable distribution of moviegoers’ attention and revenue is necessary for a healthier film industry. By fostering diversity and supporting films in the middle and lower ranks, the industry can recapture its vitality and ensure the continued enjoyment of movies for audiences worldwide.