A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to intensify into a tropical storm on Monday and could potentially become a hurricane before reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast by midweek. Referred to as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, it is currently situated approximately 300 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and is moving in a north-northwest direction. The National Hurricane Center has issued a preliminary advisory indicating that the storm is likely to move offshore of the northern Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday and make its way towards the Louisiana and upper Texas coastline by Wednesday.
Tropical storm watches have been put in place for northeastern Mexico and southern Texas as a precaution. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is anticipated to bring heavy rainfall and could result in flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico, southern Texas, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi until Thursday morning. Although the exact location of the impact is uncertain at this time, there is a growing concern for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds along portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastlines starting from Tuesday night.
In the current 2024 Atlantic storm season, there have been a total of five named storms, with three of them escalating into hurricanes. The hurricane center reported that the tropical cyclone activity observed in August was slightly lower than normal in terms of the number of named storms. The storms, including Debby and Ernesto, brought significant weather disruptions as they made landfall in various regions, causing damage and prompting safety measures to be enforced.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had initially predicted an above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin for the year 2024. Their forecast projected a total of 17 to 25 named storms, out of which eight to thirteen were expected to develop into hurricanes. This heightened activity was attributed to several factors such as unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the presence of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and decreased wind shear.
The looming threat of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of weather patterns and the importance of staying vigilant and prepared during hurricane season. Residents along the Gulf Coast are advised to monitor the storm’s progress closely and heed any warnings or advisories issued by the authorities to ensure their safety and well-being.