The tragic death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has sent shockwaves throughout Tehran, exacerbating the existing challenges of economic decline, social unrest, and ongoing conflicts. The helicopter incident, which also claimed the life of Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, has left the nation grappling with uncertainty about its future leadership. With nearly 90 million people living in Iran and the government supporting various regional proxy groups, including Hamas and Hezbollah, the stakes are high for what comes next in the Middle Eastern powerhouse.
While some analysts predict a level of continuity following Raisi’s death, there are concerns about the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seizing greater control over Iran’s political landscape. Raisi, a hardline right-winger elected in a contest with historically low voter turnout, was viewed as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Now, with the succession process underway, Vice President Mohammed Mokhber is set to take the helm temporarily, leading up to an election within the next 50 days.
The IRGC’s influence in Iran’s government is poised to remain significant, if not expand, during the interim presidency period. The power struggle between the IRGC and other conservative factions has been a defining feature of Iran’s political landscape in recent years, and Raisi’s death may tilt the balance further in the IRGC’s favor. As Iran navigates its domestic and foreign policies, the IRGC’s sway over decision-making processes could grow, impacting the country’s trajectory in critical ways.
Despite the upheaval caused by Raisi’s untimely passing, experts emphasize that Iran is unlikely to undergo a dramatic shift in its core policies. The nation’s stance on key issues such as relations with the U.S. and Israel, as well as its nuclear ambitions, is expected to remain relatively stable. Iran’s longstanding refusal to engage in formal diplomacy with the U.S. and its opposition to recognizing Israel have deep roots that transcend changes in leadership. The broader geopolitical dynamics in the region are also likely to persist, irrespective of the internal transitions taking place in Iran.
Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, highlights the limited role of the Iranian presidency in shaping the country’s policies. While the president holds a prominent position in the Iranian government, the supreme leader ultimately wields the most authority and sets the overarching direction for the nation. The president’s authority in foreign policymaking is circumscribed by the supreme leader’s preferences, underscoring the hierarchical nature of Iran’s political system.
President Raisi’s tragic death has injected fresh uncertainty into Iran’s political landscape, raising questions about the future direction of the nation. As Iran navigates the aftermath of this unexpected loss, the role of the IRGC, the continuity of key policies, and the overarching authority of the supreme leader will shape the country’s trajectory in the coming months. Despite the challenges posed by Raisi’s absence, Iran is poised to maintain a degree of stability in its core policies and geopolitical relationships, underscoring the enduring nature of its strategic positions in the region.