The global banking industry faced numerous challenges in the past year, including rising interest rates and regional banking crises. However, amidst this turmoil, Japanese banks stood out as a beacon of success. With a remarkable 36% climb in bank stocks compared to the 22% increase in the benchmark Topix stock index, Japan has proven to be a lucrative market for investors. This article delves into the reasons behind the outstanding performance of Japanese banks and explores the opportunities they present to investors.
One key factor driving the success of Japanese banks is the country’s positive yield curve. While other developed economies struggle with inverted yield curves that impede financial profit margins, Japan continues to enjoy a positive yield curve. This means that shorter-term debt has lower yields compared to longer-term debt. As a result, Japanese banks have leveraged this advantageous situation by borrowing short-term and lending long-term. This strategy has contributed to their profitability and created a conducive environment for investors.
Analysts and strategists assert that Japanese banks have more room for growth even after this year’s remarkable rally. Marko Kolanovic from JPMorgan recommends an overweight position in Japanese financial stocks, emphasizing that they have yet to fully price in the anticipated end to negative interest rates. The expectation is that negative interest rates will be discontinued next year. Currently, Japan’s short-term interest rate stands at -0.1%, while the yield on the Japan 10-Year Treasury has increased to over 0.87%. Kolanovic believes that this positive outlook for interest rates will enhance bank earnings, potentially surpassing the increases in stock prices observed thus far.
For investors looking to take advantage of the success of Japanese banks, there are several avenues to consider. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) offers exposure to Japanese financials, with a portfolio allocation of approximately 12%. Notable bank stocks in this ETF include Japan Post Bank and Chiba Bank. With assets under management totaling around $12 billion and a 0.5% expense ratio, EWJ has seen significant inflows of approximately $2.6 billion this year and has delivered a return of around 7%.
Another option is the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETF (BBJP), which manages approximately $8.7 billion in assets and also allocates approximately 12% to financials. This ETF includes prominent players such as Resona Holdings within its portfolio. Both EWJ and BBJP provide investors with diversified exposure to the Japanese banking sector, allowing them to capitalize on the ongoing success of these banks.
Despite global banking challenges, Japanese banks have demonstrated resilience and outperformed their counterparts in other regions. The positive yield curve and the expectation of an end to negative interest rates have been key drivers of their success. Investors seeking growth and opportunities in the banking sector should consider allocating their investments to Japanese banks. ETFs like EWJ and BBJP provide accessible and diversified exposure to this thriving sector. As the global economy continues to recover, Japanese banks are well-positioned for further gains and offer a compelling investment proposition.