The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is currently under pressure to exit its negative interest rate regime, amid expectations of sluggish economic growth and the need to alleviate depreciation pressure on the yen. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is faced with a challenging dilemma, as he must find a way to counter yen depreciation driven by the divergence between high U.S. interest rates and Japan’s ultra-easy policy, while also addressing the issue of high inflation that BOJ policymakers still deem unsustainable. This delicate balance between controlling the yen’s weakness and addressing domestic inflation poses a serious challenge for the central bank.
Despite the challenges, there are indications that the BOJ may implement some policy changes, including the removal of negative interest rates, in the upcoming spring. A former BOJ policy board member, Sayuri Shirai, believes that the central bank is likely to take these steps due to concerns about the side effects of the current policy. The recent retreat of the yen to around 150 to the dollar, triggered by higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data, has further heightened the urgency for the BOJ to take action. The yen’s chronic weakness has not only eroded the purchasing power of consumers in Japan but has also negatively impacted the country’s export sector.
One of the primary concerns for the BOJ is the sustained high inflation rates and their impact on domestic consumption. While inflation has been gradually slowing, the “core core inflation,” which excludes food and energy prices, has exceeded the BOJ’s target of 2% for over a year. The prolonged high inflation rates have contributed to the second consecutive contraction in Japan’s GDP in the fourth quarter. However, despite the pressing need for economic stimulus, BOJ policymakers remain cautious and meticulous in their approach to reflating the economy.
Many market observers anticipate that the BOJ will move away from its negative rates regime at its April policy meeting, especially if spring wage negotiations confirm a trend of meaningful wage increases. The central bank believes that higher wages would lead to a more substantial economic spiral, encouraging consumers to spend. However, former BOJ policy board member Shirai argues that Japanese yen-denominated wages and household consumption are currently declining, making it challenging to establish a positive cycle between price, wages, and consumer demand. This difficulty further complicates the BOJ’s path towards normalization.
Although the BOJ may consider raising interest rates to address the depreciation pressure on the yen, it is constrained by the weakness of the economy. Shirai emphasizes that even if the central bank raises interest rates slightly, it cannot sustain continuous rate hikes due to the weak state of the economy. This interest rate differential between Japan and other economies creates substantial depreciation pressure on the Japanese yen, making it extremely challenging for the BOJ to implement interest rate adjustments.
The Bank of Japan faces significant challenges as it contemplates exiting its negative interest rate regime. The delicate balance between addressing yen depreciation and controlling domestic inflation poses a formidable dilemma for policymakers. While expectations of policy changes arise, the BOJ must carefully navigate the complexities of the Japanese economy and make judicious decisions to stimulate growth effectively.