The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has put oil markets on edge, with concerns rising over potential output disruption in the Middle East. In its latest monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the conflict and the need for close monitoring to ensure adequate oil supplies. With the Middle East accounting for a significant portion of global oil trade, any threat to regional energy production has the potential to impact oil markets worldwide.
While the conflict has not directly affected physical supply so far, the IEA acknowledges the risk it poses to the region’s oil flows. The Middle East conflict has escalated geopolitical tensions, leading to fears of a disruption in oil production. Although Israel is not a major oil producer and has no significant oil infrastructure near the Gaza Strip, the overall impact on global oil markets cannot be ignored.
The IEA emphasizes its commitment to closely monitoring oil markets and acting if necessary to ensure adequate supply. In the event of an abrupt oil supply shortage, member countries can release emergency stocks or implement demand restraint measures. The agency stands ready to respond appropriately to any developments that may significantly impact oil markets.
As the Israel-Hamas conflict extends into its sixth day, the situation remains tense. The recent devastating assault by Hamas on southern Israel has led to retaliatory airstrikes from Israel and the possibility of a ground offensive. Israel has imposed a complete siege on the Gaza Strip, intensifying concerns about the supply of essential resources like electricity, food, water, and fuel to the blockaded population.
The conflict has resulted in a significant loss of life and injuries on both sides. Israel’s military reports 1,200 Israelis killed and over 2,700 injured. In Gaza, the Palestinian Ministry of Health records 1,203 deaths and 5,763 injuries. The humanitarian crisis further exacerbates the already dire situation in the region.
The Middle East conflict has heightened geopolitical tensions, raising concerns among energy market observers. Toril Bosoni, head of the oil markets division at the IEA, highlighted the agency’s close monitoring of the situation and its concerns about possible spillover effects in the wider Middle East. The volatile geopolitical landscape poses a significant risk to oil markets, warranting continued vigilance and swift action if needed.
Regarding the potential weaponization of oil exports in support of Hamas, Bosoni highlighted the reassurance from the OPEC+ alliance that they stand ready to stabilize the market. While the IEA appreciates OPEC’s commitment, it possesses tools to respond independently to any disruptions in supply. Currently, the agency does not anticipate such disruptions, but it remains prepared for any unforeseen developments.
When oil markets initially reacted to the surprise attack by Hamas, traders factored in a $3 to $4 risk premium. However, prices have since stabilized, with crude futures trading higher. Brent crude futures for December expiry rose by 0.9% to $86.59 per barrel, while front-month November U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by 0.7% to $84.06 per barrel.
The Israel-Hamas war keeps oil markets on edge due to the potential for output disruption in the Middle East. While there has been no direct impact on oil supply, the ongoing conflict and escalating geopolitical tensions require close monitoring. The IEA remains committed to maintaining adequate supply and stands ready to act if necessary. The situation calls for continued vigilance and preparedness to ensure the stability of global oil markets.