The European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meeting held on Thursday is expected to maintain interest rates at their current record high. However, investors seeking guidance on possible rate cuts are likely to be disappointed. The meeting, as suggested by economists at Société Générale, will primarily focus on reflecting on the upcoming year rather than implementing policy changes or delivering major policy messages. Despite the release of the minutes from the ECB’s December meeting, which indicated a reluctance to hike rates and premature discussions on easing, there is still uncertainty regarding rate cuts in the near future.
Market expectations have prompted investors to price in a 60% probability of the first rate cut occurring in April, according to Reuters’ analysis of LSEG data. Although March expectations for a rate cut have been pushed back in recent weeks, April pricing remains steady. This is despite several ECB officials arguing against premature rate cuts, such as Dutch Central Bank President Klaas Knot, who warned that the current market bets could be “self-defeating.” ECB President Christine Lagarde has also expressed her agreement with the likelihood of a summer cut, but maintains a reserved stance, dependent on data.
December’s headline inflation in the euro area showed an increase to 2.9% from 2.4%, largely attributed to base effects from the energy market. However, core inflation decreased to 3.4% from 3.6%. Central bank officials highlight that while price rises have cooled faster than expected, there are still risks from geopolitical volatility and the labor market. Furthermore, European wage negotiations are not expected to conclude until late spring, contributing to the need for a balanced approach. BNP Paribas economists argue that lower inflation and more balanced inflation risks support the case for a policy pivot in April, proposing cuts amounting to 125 basis points throughout the year.
UBS calls for an April rate cut, although with limited confidence. Reinhard Cluse, chief European economist at UBS, points out the need for further data releases to support this prediction. The hawkish commentary during the World Economic Forum in Davos has increased the possibility of a rate cut already in April, according to Cluse. The ECB’s March meeting will be crucial due to the release of new staff projections on wages and growth. On the other hand, economists at Berenberg disagree with the current pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut in April and nearly 150 basis points of rate trims until 2024. They argue that waiting for wage data in April and May, along with a full set of growth and inflation staff projections at the end of the first quarter, suggests a more realistic timeline for cuts in June.
Société Générale economists are even more cautious in their approach, as they have moved their forecast for the first rate cut from December to September. However, they acknowledge the high uncertainty surrounding the data, leaving the possibility of no cuts this year as a viable option.
The European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting is not expected to result in any immediate rate cuts or major policy changes. The focus remains on the year ahead, with economists reflecting on the best course of action. Investors, hungry for guidance, anticipate rate cuts in the near future, but there are differing views on the timing of these cuts. While some argue for an April rate cut, others suggest that more data releases and staff projections are necessary to make an informed decision. As uncertainty looms, caution prevails among economists, leaving the possibility of no rate cuts this year on the table.
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