The Republican Strategy to Flip Blue States in the 2024 Election

In a bold move to secure control of the House of Representatives, the super PAC aligned with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has devised a plan to spend at least $100 million in the 2024 election cycle. The plan, named the “Blue State Project,” aims to support GOP House candidates in states that were won by President Joe Biden in 2020. The strategy memo, addressed to “Interested Parties” and obtained by CNBC, outlines the unique challenges and opportunities posed by these blue states.

The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) president, Dan Conston, emphasizes that the House will be won or lost in blue states in the upcoming election cycle. He points out a critical distinction between swing voters in blue states and those in traditional battleground states. According to Conston, the Republican Party infrastructure will not be as present in these blue states, where both parties have established voter outreach programs. This absence of infrastructure poses a significant challenge for House Republicans as they prepare to compete in these states.

Recognizing the need to create their own infrastructure, the CLF’s plan involves several key elements. First, there is a focus on identifying key voters in these blue states. Next, the super PAC aims to build a comprehensive voter contact plan, which includes effective outreach strategies. Finally, a turnout strategy for Election Day will be developed to ensure that Republican voters in these states show up to the polls. These elements highlight the complexity and expense of running political campaigns in blue states.

The GOP’s slim majority in the House after the 2022 midterms, largely due to victories in blue states such as New York, has set the stage for their ambitious plan. In total, four House seats were flipped by Republicans in New York. However, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic rival House Majority PAC are not backing down. They have pledged to invest millions of dollars in New York and California to reclaim these seats in the upcoming election cycle.

Retaining these seats in deep blue states like New York and California will require significant financial resources. The CLF will need to buy airtime for advertisements in some of the most expensive media markets in the country. With limited financial resources available, strategic decision-making will be crucial to ensure effective spending and maximize the impact of their campaign.

Although New York and California are the primary targets for the CLF, the super PAC is also looking beyond these two states. Districts in New Jersey, Washington, and Oregon are also on their radar. Expanding their efforts to these additional blue states demonstrates the Republican Party’s commitment to increasing its presence and influence in traditionally Democratic strongholds.

The CLF’s fundraising efforts have been promising so far, with over $19 million raised in the first half of the year. As they enter the latter half of 2023, the super PAC has around $17 million in funds. These financial resources will be crucial in executing their ambitious plans for the 2024 election cycle. Timothy Mellon and Craig Duchossois are among the top donors, contributing $5 million and over $2 million, respectively.

Ozzie Palomo, a co-founder of a lobbying firm and Republican fundraiser, believes that competing in blue states is essential for the GOP’s control over the House. Palomo emphasizes the need for Republicans to both save seats in blue states and explore opportunities to add seats. According to the CLF memo, the party believes there are specific districts where they have a strong chance of success, including those currently held by representatives Elissa Slotkin, Susan Wild, and Matt Cartwright.

The Republican Party’s strategy to flip blue states in the 2024 election cycle marks a bold and calculated move to secure control of the House of Representatives. The CLF’s “Blue State Project” aims to overcome the challenges posed by the lack of established Republican infrastructure in these states. By identifying key voters, building a comprehensive voter contact plan, and deploying a turnout strategy, the Republican Party hopes to achieve success in traditionally Democratic strongholds. With significant financial resources, strategic decision-making, and top donors, the GOP aims to expand their influence beyond the familiar battleground states and secure their position in the House. Only time will tell whether their ambitious plan will yield the desired results.


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