China’s consumer spending has been struggling to regain its pre-pandemic growth, with analysts highlighting the slow pace of recovery. Despite a slight pickup in retail sales during the recent holiday period, the figures indicate less than 3% growth per year since the start of the pandemic. This article delves into the reasons behind the sluggish consumer spending in China and explores its potential for future growth.
Experts believe that consumer confidence remains low, leading to cautious spending behavior. The impact of the pandemic, coupled with a decline in government spending and the ongoing property slump, has left consumers uncertain about future income and less willing to spend extravagantly. Christine Peng, head of Greater China consumer sector at UBS, notes that while consumers have started to increase their spending, they maintain a cautious attitude towards how they utilize their money.
During the recent Chinese Golden Week holiday, domestic tourism rebounded to nearly pre-pandemic levels. However, overseas travel has yet to fully recover, primarily due to economic uncertainty. Chinese residents prefer to travel domestically due to concerns about the economy. Affluent consumers, in particular, have shown a preference for Hainan, a tropical province known for its duty-free shopping malls and natural beauty. Although tourist visits to Hainan saw a significant increase during the latest holiday, overall spending on luxury goods remains well below 2019 levels.
Chinese luxury spending, both at home and abroad, has been slow to recover. According to HSBC, Chinese spending on luxury goods in the Asia-Pacific region has already returned to 2019 levels. However, in continental Europe, such spending is still only at half of pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, tourists from the U.S. and Middle East are spending significantly more on luxury goods in Europe compared to before the pandemic. This divergence in luxury spending trends highlights the differences in consumer behavior across regions.
China’s consumer spending has been lagging behind the country’s overall economic growth since the start of the pandemic. While Covid-19 restrictions were lifted in late 2022, the economy’s recovery has been hindered by a decline in the real estate market and a drop in exports. However, there have been some signs of improvement in certain sectors. Casual dining restaurants, for example, have reported same-store sales recovering to 90% of pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, sales of toys, groceries, and sportswear brands have shown growth compared to the previous year’s holiday period. On the other hand, sales of appliances, furniture, and premium products have been more subdued.
UBS expects consumption growth to pick up to 5% or 6% towards the end of 2024. However, it is unlikely that retail sales will return to the 9% growth seen before the pandemic due to low consumer confidence. Factors such as government regulatory tightening and uncertainty about future income continue to influence consumer behavior. It will take time for consumers to fully regain their trust and return to pre-pandemic spending levels.
China’s consumer spending is gradually recovering, but at a slower pace than analysts had hoped for. The cautious attitude of consumers, coupled with economic uncertainties and decline in government spending, has impacted retail sales growth. While some sectors are witnessing improvements, overall consumer spending remains below pre-pandemic levels. It is crucial for the Chinese government and businesses to address these challenges and instill confidence in consumers for a sustainable and robust recovery of consumer spending in the future.