Unprecedented Upsurge: Polish Opposition Parties Projected to Win General Election, Ousting Law and Justice

In a stunning turn of events, Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk declared victory in the general election, asserting that three opposition parties had gained enough support to unseat the ruling conservative nationalist party, Law and Justice. The Ipsos exit poll revealed that the combined support for the opposition parties is projected to secure 248 seats in the lower house of parliament, the Sejm, out of a total of 460 seats. Meanwhile, Law and Justice secured 200 seats, with the far-right Confederation garnishing 12 seats. Tusk expressed his elation by proclaiming, “I am the happiest man on earth. Democracy has won. Poland has won.”

Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of Law and Justice, acknowledged the uncertain fate of his party. While he celebrated their achievement of nearly 37% of the vote, as per the exit poll, Kaczynski recognized the possibility of relinquishing power. Addressing his supporters, he asserted, “The question before us is whether this success will be able to be turned into another term of office of our government, and we don’t know yet. But we must have hope and we must also know that regardless of whether we are in power or in opposition, we will implement this project in different ways.” The exit poll presented a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Despite running on separate tickets, the three opposition parties – Tusk’s Civic Coalition, Third Way, and the New Left – campaigned with a shared objective: to remove Law and Justice from power and rebuild positive relations with the European Union. With each party garnering substantial support, they formed a formidable coalition poised to reshape the political landscape. However, it is imperative to note that votes are still being counted, and final results are expected by Tuesday morning, as confirmed by the state electoral commission.

Widely regarded as the most critical election since the birth of new democracy in 1989, Poland finds itself confronting profound implications. The health of the nation’s constitutional order, its legal stance on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and its foreign alliances hang in the balance. Notably, Poland has played a crucial role as an ally to Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion. Nevertheless, the ruling Law and Justice party has been eroding checks and balances, consolidating control over state institutions such as the courts, public media, and the electoral process. Over time, the party’s support has waned due to allegations of cronyism, high inflation, and rifts with European allies. Having secured nearly 44% of the vote in the previous election, Law and Justice currently faces a decline in popularity, polling at just over 30%.

The governance of Law and Justice has encountered economic criticisms and strained relations. Critics argue that the party’s high social spending has exacerbated inflation, presenting an economic threat. Moreover, state ownership is prevalent in the Polish economy, with the governing party fostering a system of patronage wherein loyalists are rewarded with jobs and contracts. These practices raised concerns within the European Union, resulting in the withholding of billions of euros in funding due to perceived democratic erosion.

The future of Poland’s relationship with Ukraine has come under scrutiny during this election. The Confederation party campaigned heavily on an anti-Ukraine platform, accusing the country of ingratitude towards Poland for its support during Russia’s war. While Poland has been an unwavering ally to Ukraine and a vital transit hub for Western weapons, relations cooled due to a dispute over Ukrainian grain entering Poland’s market.

With approximately 29 million eligible voters, the election encompassed the choice of 460 members of the lower house (Sejm) and 100 senators, each serving four-year terms. Simultaneously, a referendum was held, addressing issues such as migration and the retirement age. However, opposition groups criticized the referendum, claiming it was an attempt by the government to exploit emotions, leading some to advocate for a boycott. The voting process involved over 31,000 polling stations within Poland and more than 400 voting stations abroad. Evidencing the immense interest in this election, over 600,000 Poles registered to vote abroad.

The election stirred deep emotions, as evidenced by a series of controversies. The Foreign Ministry dismissed its spokesperson after he suggested that not all votes cast abroad could be counted by the submission deadline, potentially invalidating them. In response, the ministry cited the spreading of “false information” as the reason for his dismissal.

In Polish parliamentary elections, individual parties need to receive at least 5% of votes to win seats, while coalitions require a minimum of 8% of votes.

Through a remarkable display of unity and a shared objective of change, the opposition parties have defied expectations and projected confidence in securing victory. As the final results are eagerly awaited, Poland braces itself for what might be a transformative shift in its political landscape.


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